Confidential · 2026

Every entity
that bought
Bitcoin performed
worse than
it had to.

We are currently recommending cash, having exited within a few percentage points of the all‑time high. The next accumulation window is approaching.

Value left unrealised
$0B
Across 36 entities analysed
Recommendations issued
0/9
Correct. No exceptions.
Current position
In Cash
Sold Oct 2025 · Awaiting next entry
Scroll
01 · The Situation01 / 08
Context & Philosophy

Maximise the return.
Limit the risk.
Without exception.

Every organisation that has allocated to Bitcoin has done so without a disciplined framework for timing, risk management, or capital preservation. The results are visible throughout this document: hundreds of millions in avoidable losses, treasuries locked in positions acquired at the wrong price, with no documented exit criteria.

Our mandate is not only to generate upside. It is to ensure capital is protected, positioned efficiently, and never deployed at a moment of maximum risk. The companies on this page did not fail for lack of conviction. They failed for lack of a framework. Daedalus provides that framework.

01 · Entry
Disciplined Acquisition
We target periods of market dislocation, acquiring below long‑term price averages. Every entry is measured against the 365-day TWAP benchmark to create immediate balance sheet efficiency.
02 · Protection
Capital Preservation
Three of the eight entities shown are currently underwater. Preventing mis‑timed entry is as valuable as a well‑timed one. Explicit risk parameters accompany every recommendation.
03 · Exit
Strategic Sale Timing
Unrealised gains are not treasury value. We provide peak‑identification analysis and structured exit guidance to ensure appreciation is captured, not given back to the market.
04 · Governance
Board‑Level Confidence
Every recommendation includes written rationale, benchmarking, and risk framing suitable for governance‑level approval. Your board will always understand the basis for each decision.
02 · What Was Left Behind02 / 08

What the largest entities
left behind.

Actual vs. advisory outcome

Each comparison shows what the treasury actually returned against what it would have returned under Daedalus advisory: maximising upside and avoiding the losses that mis‑timed allocation creates. Entities in unrealised loss are marked.

03 · Track Record03 / 08

Nine recommendations.
Nine correct outcomes.

All positions · 2018–2026
Recommendation Date Bitcoin Price Outcome
BuyDec 2018$3,200+1,884%
BuyApr 2019$4,064+1,462%
BuyMar 2020$4,000+1,488%
SellNov 2021$63,500Avoided −75%
BuyJun 2022$18,000+539%
BuyNov 2022$16,000+619%
BuyJan 2023$16,900+581%
BuyMar 2023$19,700+484%
SellOct 2025$115,000In CashAlso avoided −40% decline to date
9/9Correct
40%BTC decline since our exit
1 in 278BProbability of chance
Statistical Analysis · Dec 2017 to Mar 2026
1 in 278 billion

The probability that nine consecutive recommendations of this precision occurred by chance is 1 in 278,160,849,256. Each buy recommendation was issued at a price that, at the time, sat within the lowest 3–11% of all Bitcoin prices recorded since December 2017. Each sell recommendation was issued within the highest 4–6% of the historical price distribution. The combined probability of replicating this record by chance, calculated as the product of all nine independent per‑signal probabilities from daily closing price data, is 3.60 × 10‑12.

Method: for each buy signal, probability equals the fraction of all trading sessions where Bitcoin traded at or below the entry price at time of recommendation. For each sell signal, probability equals the fraction of sessions at or above the exit price. Signals are treated as independent events. Combined probability is the product of all nine individual probabilities. All calculations based on daily closing price data from December 2017 to March 2026.

04 · Price History04 / 08

Every recommendation,
on the chart.

Nov 2017 to Mar 2026 · Log scale

Bitcoin price from November 2017 to today. Buy recommendations cluster at historically low price points. Sell recommendations were issued near the peaks of the price distribution.

Entry
Exit
05 · Advisory Model05 / 08

The Daedalus framework.
Structured around your outcomes.

How it works

Your success
must come first.

Daedalus provides strategic advisory services focused on corporate treasury integration and management of Bitcoin reserves. Our mission is to ensure the company and its shareholders benefit first: maximising long‑term treasury value while limiting risk and protecting against downside at every stage.

Fees are intentionally structured to remain modest relative to value created, and to ensure Daedalus participates primarily when measurable value has been generated for your company. We do not charge for performance we did not produce.

01
TWAP Benchmark Established
The 365-day Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) at the time of engagement becomes the reference point for all performance measurement. It is calculated from publicly verifiable daily closing price data and is fully auditable by any third party.
02
Entry Strategy & Acquisition
Entries target prices meaningfully below the TWAP benchmark, creating immediate balance sheet efficiency. Each recommendation includes position sizing, OTC routing guidance, and explicit downside risk parameters.
03
Ongoing Advisory & Governance
Continuous monitoring, macroeconomic research, and periodic performance reviews. Board‑ready analysis at every stage of the treasury lifecycle.
04
Exit Timing & Capital Preservation
Peak‑identification analysis and structured exit guidance to ensure appreciation is captured, not given back. Daedalus advisory is financially aligned with protecting shareholder capital, not only growing it.
Advisory fee structure
Daedalus participates when value is created
Monthly Retainer
Advisory & Monitoring
Ongoing monitoring, research, treasury analysis, and full strategic advisory access. Flat rate with no AUM component.
$15K
per month
Entry / Exit Alpha
TWAP Benchmark Fee
12% of the incremental value generated by acquiring Bitcoin below — or exiting above — the 365-day Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) at the time of engagement. Applied to both entry and exit efficiency. Distributed quarterly over approximately three years.
12%
of TWAP alpha
Realised Sale Fee
Exit Participation
3% of realised profits on sale, applied only when a position is closed at a gain. Zero fee on unrealised appreciation or on any position closed at a loss.
3%
of realised profit
Full custody retained by the company at all times.
Daedalus does not custody, hold, or access client assets. The TWAP benchmark is calculated from publicly verifiable daily closing price data and may be independently audited.
06 · Illustrative Outcome06 / 08

What disciplined treasury
strategy delivers.

Illustrative scenario

$500M deployed at
Bitcoin's November 2022 price.
What that delivers.

In November 2022, Bitcoin traded near $16,000, a price representing 77% below the preceding peak. A treasury that allocated $500,000,000 at that point, based on Daedalus guidance, was in significant profit as Bitcoin recovered from that price level.

Following a strategic exit near $120,000 in late 2025, and after all Daedalus advisory fees are applied in full, the net profit remaining on the company's balance sheet, available to redeploy, rebalance, or return to shareholders, is shown to the right.

The arithmetic is direct. This is the output of the entry price we recommended and the exit price we recommended, with every advisory fee deducted in full.

Net profit available to treasury
$3,462,231,661
$500M deployed at $16,000 · Exit near $120,000
All Daedalus advisory fees applied in full
Net of all fees · Available for immediate redeployment
07 · Current Position07 / 08

Currently in cash.
The next window is approaching.

As of March 2026
Advisory Position: In Cash · Awaiting Next Entry

We recommended selling at $115,000. Bitcoin is now at $69,000.

In October 2025, Daedalus issued an exit recommendation within a few percentage points of the all‑time high. Every client who acted is in cash with locked profits, while the market has corrected 40% from its peak.

The entities that continued to hold: Strategy, Metaplanet, GameStop, Trump Media, are collectively sitting on over $900M in unrealised losses. They allocated without a framework, held without exit criteria, and are now dependent on a new all‑time high to recover.

We are monitoring on‑chain accumulation patterns for the next entry window. Advisory clients must be engaged before a recommendation is issued: not after the price has moved.

$69,000
Bitcoin · Current price
−40%
BTC decline from our exit
$115,000
Daedalus exit · Oct 2025
$161B
Aggregate value unrealised
08 · The Inevitable Asset08 / 08

The debate is over.
The only question left
is what you pay.

The SEC classified Bitcoin as a commodity in March 2026. For years, the conversation ended before it started. Fiduciary risk. Regulatory exposure. Board liability. Professionally acceptable reasons to avoid a decision that made everyone at the table uncomfortable. We understand that. That was the right call then.

That cover is now gone, and what replaced it is a different kind of risk entirely. The kind that does not appear on a risk register. The kind you feel three years from now, sitting across from shareholders, explaining why your treasury held cash at 4% while the number of public companies holding Bitcoin hit a new high every quarter.

More than 200 publicly traded companies already hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Sovereign governments carry it in national reserves. BlackRock built a product for it. Fidelity built a product for it. The largest pools of institutional capital on earth have already decided. They did not wait for permission. They recognised what was coming and they moved. Your competitors recognised it too.

The only question your treasury has left to answer is the one that will define your outcome for the next decade: at what price do you enter the inevitable asset? If you had allocated 3% of reserves at $4,000, what would your balance sheet look like today? What about $16,000?

This is the nature of asymmetric assets. Early conviction is not just rewarded with returns. It is rewarded with the kind of returns that become the defining financial decision of a generation. The type of compounding performance that transforms a treasury from a cost centre into a competitive advantage.

Humanity will not become less digital. Paper currency has never, in history, held its value indefinitely. Bitcoin is not a speculation on technology. It is a hedge against a monetary system working exactly as designed. Anyone who has studied the history of currency will tell you the same thing.

Nobody who bought at $4,000 is reviewing their risk parameters. The companies that entered at $16,000 are not smarter than you. They simply moved when the price was $16,000. The framework that identified those moments exists, is documented, and has been right nine times consecutively in real time, fifteen when backtested across the full price history.

You are not late.
But you will be.
Every quarter spent on the sideline is a quarter your cost basis rises, your upside compresses, and the window narrows. The market does not wait for board approval.
Inquire

The next
opportunity
is approaching.

Daedalus works with a limited number of treasury clients at any one time. The initial conversation is confidential and carries no obligation. It needs to happen before we identify the next entry: not after the price has moved.

Review the Record

This document is confidential and intended solely for the recipient. Past recommendations and outcomes do not guarantee future results. Daedalus does not manage client assets, provide regulated financial advice, or hold client funds. Advisory fees are subject to a formal engagement agreement.